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When Tesla delivers their 200,000th car in the US the federal EV tax credit will begin to phase-out. In this video I look at three scenarios that could play out based on their current delivery numbers - Get more at https://teslanomics.co/join
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Government incentives for plug-in electric vehicles
Government incentives for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have been established by several national and local governments around the world as a financial incentives to plug-in electric vehicle vehicles to consumers. These mainly include tax exemptions and tax credits, and additional perks that range from access to bus lines to waivers on fees (charging, parking, tolls, etc.). The amount of these incentives usually depend on battery size and the vehicle all-electric range, and some countries extend the benefits to fuel cell vehicles, and electric vehicle conversions of hybrid electric vehicles and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. The IEA determined that, as of 2016, 0.2% of all passenger vehicles (approximately 2 million electric vehicles ) are currently on the road worldwide.
The world’s total final consumption of energy by sector represented 9,426 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) in 2014, 28% of which is attributed to transport alone, accounting for an increase of 5% from 1971 statistics. Moreover, 23% of energy-related Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions worldwide are also attributable to transport. Thus, the electrification of the transport sector represents an area of opportunity for governments to cut their GHG emissions, which is why they are starting to champion policies that increase plug-in hybrid electric vehicles adoption rates.
In his 2011 State of the Union address, President Barack Obama set the goal for the U.S. to become the first country to have one million electric vehicles on the road by 2015. For this purpose, his administration pledged US$2.4 billion in federal grants to support the development of next-generation electric vehicles and batteries. The funds were allocated as follows: $1.5 billion in grants to U.S. based manufacturers to produce highly efficient batteries and their components; up to $500 million in grants to U.S. based manufacturers to produce other components needed for electric vehicles, such as electric motors and other components; and up to $400 million to demonstrate and evaluate plug-in hybrids and other electric infrastructure concepts—like truck stop charging station, electric rail, and training for technicians to build and repair electric vehicles (greencollar jobs).
Considering that actual plug-in car sales were lower than initially expected, as of early 2013, several industry observers have concluded that Obama's one million goal was unattainable. As of December 2016, approximately 542,000 EVs have been sold to date in the U.S.  According to a July 2012 study by Pike Research, cumulative sales will reach the one million goal set by the Obama Administration only in 2018. Other analysts agree that the goal could be achieved in 2018. With only about 400,000 plug-in electric cars sold in the United States by the end of December 2015, Secretary of Energy, Ernest Moniz, said in January 2016 that the one million goal may not be reached until 2020. According to the Secretary purchases have fallen well below President Barack Obama's goal due to low gasoline prices, which had a negative impact on sales. Also improvements in battery technology are required as lowering battery costs is "absolutely critical" to boost electric vehicle sales. U.S. cumulative plug-in sales since 2008 achieved the 500,000 unit milestone in August 2016.